Though my title may seem a little bit too dramatic, in no way do I want to equate or make people think that this is an issue that people need to panic about much like they did in the erroneous belief that the year 2000 would cause any problems with computer systems. Though this issue may not be that big of a deal it is important that non computer users understand what is going with IP addresses as it is fundamental to the basic plumbing behind the internet. As the transition from IPV4 to IPV6 begins to occur, people need to understand what it is and that it will effect them physically since a large portion of the population uses the internet constantly now and many businesses rely heavily on it.
Without getting to technical, the problem can be equated to what happened with telephone industry back in the early days of phones. As cities and communities became larger, the need to transition from a 4 digit phone number for every home to a 7 digit number and eventually to the 10 digit numbering system we have today in the US was vital to grow the telephone infrastructure. With the advent of cell phones the problem grew even more as people could now have several numbers not just for their home but for their families and the very early original system would not have had enough phone numbers to give to every user.
This is sort of what is happening to the internet, the current IPV4 infrastructure has a 32 bit address and though that still gives us a large number of internet addresses to work with we are coming very close to running out of addresses very soon. As every new device from smart phone to laptop and tablet device comes online and may require an address, when you consider that the problem isn’t just limited to the US but instead is world wide you can see how we will run out of ways to locate a computer to send information to very shortly. Current estimates that if we continue in the growth that we currently see shows us running out of IP addresses in the IP version 4 format some time in late 2011. Though the argument can be made that there are still millions of IP addresses that are being “hogged” by certain older organizations like Universities and companies like HP. That is still not enough to really fill the need when you consider that the internet grows exponentially every few months (meaning it doubles in size).
Many will try to make a huge deal out of this and say that the world is coming to an end and that the internet will crash if we don’t do switch and though that may be a bit much it is a serious problem that is for the most part being ignored in most circles. Most companies and organizatiosn create what are called sub networks or internal networks that don’t require an idividual IP for each machine and this has served us well for now but may not work as well down the line if the internet continues to grow the way it has been. The real answer to this problem has been for years now a new standard called IPV6, it gives us a 128 bit address so basically more room to work with numbers. Just to give you a point of reference as to just how large IPV 6 really is compared to the current address model, you could give a different IP address using IPV6 to every grain of sand on earth.
The problem becomes the adpotion of IPV6 has been very slow and companies have been waiting until it actually becomes a problem before they really deal with it. It won’t crash the internet or take down banks and institutions like we thought would occur with Y2K but it will be a problem for people using the internet in their homes or offices once the change over does occur. Though most large companies and institutions are having the forsight to buy routers and systems that are IPV6 compliant, most likely the small cable box or wireless router most people buy for cheap and keep at their home to use the internet may not be. My hope is that once the change over starts to happen that cable providers will figure out a way to help their customers in the transition by providing them with an internal system to accomodate them from having to buy all new equipment for their homes in a year or two.
The basic take away from this is whether you are a family with a single wireless connection to the internet for your kids, spouse and grandma or you are a small business looking to upgrade your computers and network routers or switches, it’s vital that you pay attention to whether what you are buying is IPV6 compatible or not. If this becomes an issue soon in the future and if companies don’t seem to transition well to the new standard as time goes buy you may see people are are forced down the line to buy all new equipment for their house or office when they just bought it a few years or months back. If you already have the equipment then don’t worry to much about upgrading, when the time comes and it will that you need to switch over you will have to deal with the issue at that point. If you are in the process of buying or are looking to buy new computers and routers then I would take this issue very seriously so that you don’t pay a ton down the line for this.
Most of the major manufacturers don’t see a need right now to offer IPV6 to their current customers for two major reasons, first it’s not a problem now so they take the same view as most in the industry and that is we will deal with it when it happens but second they see it as a positive because they know that in a few years down the line you will have to buy a new device and so by keeping IPV6 as an unecessary extra addon that they provide only to the more expensive versions of their devices they know they will be able to sell even more IPV6 machines when the change over actually does occur. It may not seem fair but it’s business, so be sure to only buy IPV6 compatiable hardware in everything you get and hopefully your devices, computers, routers and other machines will last you many many more years to come.